Yanjinpuzi (002847) coverage report for the first time: “Shop in the Island” promotes innovative bake in channels, and spicy bars drive growth

Yanjinpuzi (002847) coverage report for the first time: “Shop in the Island” promotes innovative bake in channels, and spicy bars drive growth
The leader in the leisure snack industry, independently manufactures the first share of Yanjinpuzi military leisure food manufacturing and sales, and directly engages in the Central China region with the direct sales of supermarkets as the main channel.The company’s product categories are rich, and it is involved in dried miscellaneous products (surimi, dried beans, roasted candied fruits, vegetarian food, etc.), baking, and dried fruit. Among them, soybean products, baking, quick-frozen surimi, and meat products account for more than 63%. The company adheres to the channel strategy of direct sales, and dealers follow the channel strategy to accelerate the nationwide layout. The company achieved revenue of 11 in 2018.07 million yuan, an increase of 47% in ten years, and revenue in Q1 of 20193.4.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 44% each year. The company’s rapid growth in revenue due to new product promotion and channel expansion, the future profit side is expected to start to accelerate. The snack food industry has a low degree of large concentration, and the regionalization and homogenization of the snack food industry has ample space. It reached 556.3 billion in 2018, and the compound growth rate of the market size from 2010 to 2018 reached 8.4%, is expected to maintain steady growth in the future.At present, there is no national leader in the industry. The regional leaders include three squirrels, good shops, miss you, come to Yifen, Yanjin shop, and so on.In terms of specific market segments, the growth rate of the three sub-industries of roasted nuts, leisure soy products, butcher shops and baking was ahead of the overall market, and the baking market grew by more than 10% in 16-18.Among them, the oligopoly market has formed an oligopoly market, and there are still opportunities for breakthroughs in the soy products and pastry markets.In terms of channels, offline channels occupy an absolute share; online channels have developed rapidly, but the layout has been initially determined, with three squirrels, a good shop, and a herb-like flavor. The total market share is 65%. Core Aspects: Baking, the promotion of new hot stick products is smooth, and the “shop-in-island” model enhances channel competitiveness. (1) In 2018, the company entered the baking and hot stick market and launched a differentiated new product “Vigna 58 Tianxian” short-term bread and”Little 杭州夜网论坛 New Prince” coarse grain spicy bar, and hired star Lin to update endorsement drainage.Bakery products are differentiated selling points with short-term guarantees, innovative flavors, nutrition upgrades, and cost-effectiveness. Hot bars benefit from industry integration under the condition of high-quality products, so that they can quickly and rapidly increase volume and become a new growth point for the company. (2) The “Shop in Island” model is an innovative model of the company’s centralized display of merchandise in the store. It is divided into “gold shop”, “spicy town” and “sapphire”, which strengthens the brand display and enhancesThe consumer experience strengthens the company’s advantage in the hypermarket. From 2019 to 2021, the company plans to put 5,000 “store islands” in the country every year to help promote new products. (3) The company adopts the channel of new product promotion and large-scale commercial supermarket development, relying on the Central China market, the South China and Southwest markets have grown rapidly, accelerating the nationwide distribution. (4) The snacks are manufactured independently, and the product quality and brand reputation are guaranteed. Profit forecast: The company is a domestic first-line snack food company, which guarantees product quality and safety through independent production; the company’s new products for baking and hot sticks are clearly differentiated, and combined with the “store-in-island” model to enhance competition and brand exposure in hypermarket channels;The company covers a wide range of channels and a hierarchical structure, and is expected to move from the core South China region to the whole country in the future.We estimate the company’s revenue for 19-21 years14.800 million, 20 billion, 2.6 billion, net profit1.07 billion, 1.8 billion, 2.340,000 yuan, EPS 0.84, 1.40, 1.83 yuan / share, given 30 times 2020, with a target price of 42.0 yuan, given a “buy” rating. Risk warning: food safety risks, intensified industry competition, unsustainable product innovation, new product growth is less than expected, regional expansion is less than expected