Anjing Food (603345): Performance exceeded expectations Net profit margin maintained spiral
Event: The company disclosed a performance report, and its 2019 earnings, net profit attributable to the mother were 52.
6.7 billion, 3.
7.3 billion, an increase of 23 previously.
Among them, Q4 increased by 34 in half a year.
12%, both revenue and profit exceeded expectations.
Increasing prices and volume of new products are important reasons for revenue growth and performance elasticity.
In order to cope with rising costs, according to grassroots research, the company raised prices three times at the end of August, October, and November of 2019, with the largest price increase in October and the widest range of categories involved. Q4 reflected directly.
The company raised prices for most categories, 南京夜网 except for meat products, other surimi products, and rice noodle products. The cost increase was much lower than the price increase. Therefore, the price increase significantly increased the gross profit margin and brought higher profit margin flexibility.
Outstanding performance of fresh locks.
In September 2019, the company launched new locks for fresh packaging, positioning high-end products for home consumption, and promoting them on CCTV and regional TV stations. The demand for the terminal is strong, and other new products, such as high-end pastry osmanthus cakes, quicksand bags, can reduce eggs.Dumplings also sell well.
In addition, the acceleration of Q4 income also has the Spring Festival ahead of schedule, and the effect of active stocking downstream.
Gross profit margin is expected to increase in Q4, and the selling expense ratio will decrease slightly. In 2020, the predicted net profit margin will continue to rise.
The price increase + high gross profit margin of the fresh-locked package grows fast, and promotes Q4 gross profit margin to increase. At the same time, the scale effect + the company actively reduces promotions, and the sales expense ratio decreases, resulting in a substantial increase in the net profit margin of Q4.
The company’s ability to regulate independently is extremely strong: historically, the company has adjusted its cost structure and appropriate market price strategies, so that its gross profit margin is relatively stable during cost fluctuations, benefiting from the effect of scale, and its net interest rate has increased steadily.
As the industry leader, the company has a bargaining power on upstream and downstream and control over channel substitution. The company’s net interest rate is 5 in 2011.
8% to 7 in 2019.
1%, the cost will increase significantly in 2019, but the company digests it well, and it will still be benefited from the price increase effect in 2020, and the cost pressure on meat products of the company will decrease as the price of chicken rises, and the net profit margin is expected to increase.
The short-term impact of the epidemic situation is conducive to industry leaders to increase market share.
In response to the epidemic situation, the company flexibly deployed across markets and regions to minimize the impact of the epidemic to the catering channel. At present, factories in major production areas have been fully started to actively meet the strong demand of retail channels in various regions. Short-term company production and sales have been affected to some extent.However, under the crisis, small brands have accelerated their withdrawal, and leading companies will increase their market share during the recovery period with stronger anti-risk capabilities and market building capabilities.
The production capacity layout fully guarantees the later scale expansion, and the scale effect builds high barriers.
Wuxi’s livelihood project (the capacity of rice noodle products is 7 tons) has been put into production at the end of 2019. According to the company’s announcement, Henan Anjing Phase I (capacity 6 output) and Hubei Anjing Phase I (capacity 7 output) are expected to gradually contribute in 2020.The increase rate is 15-20%. According to the company announcement, the company’s production capacity will reach 98 by 2026.
28, the maximum limit, a compound growth rate of about 13% from 2018 to 2026, and continued deployment of production capacity to provide sales expansion to provide protection.
The real estate sales model also reduces transportation costs, and the cost advantage is obvious under the scale effect, which continues to consolidate competition barriers.
Investment suggestion: Expected EPS 1 in 2019-2021.
44 yuan, excluding amortization costs, EPS 1 for 2019-2021.
58 yuan, maintaining a 6-month target price of 76.
48 yuan, maintain “Buy-A” rating.
Risk reminder: The impact of the epidemic is longer than expected, and the company’s production capacity is less than expected.