Optimized investment structure Consumption becomes the primary driver of economic growth
The original title: Improving the investment structure and optimizing consumption as the highest driving force for economic growth. Reporter Zhao Baizhinan The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 14th that in July, the total 重庆桑拿网 retail sales of consumer goods continued to increase.
6%, a growth rate of 2 lower than last month.
From January to July, the annual increase in national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 5.
7%, a growth rate of 0 down from January to June.
Experts believe that the data shows that the investment structure has been optimized and is expected to continue in a good direction.
Consumption is expected to drive the initial momentum of economic growth. Under the escorting of fiscal and monetary policies, the economy has a stable operating foundation.
Manufacturing investment continued to pick up in the first seven months, and national fixed asset investment growth slowed down slightly from January to June.
The chief analyst of fixed income of CITIC Securities clearly believes that from the rapid growth of investment in various industries, real estate investment is still the main support of the tertiary industry and fixed asset investment, but the overall investment structure is in a good direction.
The data show that from January to July, the growth rate of investment in the manufacturing industry accelerated by 0 from January to June.
3 integers, a slight acceleration for three consecutive months.
High-tech industry investment continued to grow rapidly, of which high-tech manufacturing investment continued to grow.
1%, investment in high-tech service industry increased by 11.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that due to the weakening of terminal demand, the acceleration of corporate profit growth and the impact of trade environment on investment confidence, the growth rate of investment in manufacturing is still at a low level.
However, the intensification of budget tax cuts this year will offset the impact of external factors to a certain extent and support the investment in later manufacturing.
With the recovery of manufacturing investment indicators, infrastructure investment, real estate investment fell.
From January to July, the investment in infrastructure increased by 10 years.
8%, a growth rate of 0 down from January to June.
3 single; real estate development investment increases by 10 per year.
6%, a growth rate of 0 down from January to June.
Huang Wentao, chief analyst of CITIC Securities Macro Solid Income, believes that a rebound in real estate sales is unlikely to occur, and tightening financing, and the ebb and flow of shed reforms will also drag on real estate investment during the year, and real estate investment is expected to continue to be under pressure.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior expert at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that restructuring, the transformation of infrastructure investment bases, and the control of hidden debt risks will have a certain impact on infrastructure investments; expanding and increasing the support of special debts for infrastructure construction will enhance the rebound in infrastructure investment.
Infrastructure investment is expected to pick up in the following months, but with limited margins.
Consumption demand remains stable. The growth of consumption leading to about 8% during the year is the primary driving force for economic growth.
According to Liu Xuezhi, the breakdown of consumption growth in July was mainly affected by the sharp decline in consumption in the automobile category.
After July, the Sixth National Emissions Standard was officially implemented, and automotive consumption changed significantly.
But overall, consumer demand has remained relatively stable and is expected to maintain steady growth.
Liu Xuezhi believes that the counter-cyclical adjustment in the following months still needs to be moderately increased.
Proactive fiscal policies need to work harder to improve efficiency, expand and continue to implement small tax and fee reduction policies, gradually reduce the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure, will be transferred to the budget stability adjustment fund, arrange for local state-owned enterprises to turn in profits, and clean up the inventory of fiscal funds.
Monetary policy should continue to relax marginally, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and focus on adopting targeted measures to support private enterprises to boost market confidence.
It is possible to increase the directional accuracy reduction, and consider reducing the overall accuracy when appropriate.
However, we must maintain the steady force of steady development, not flooding, and resolutely stop the practice of controlling the real estate bubble.